Powerball Odds?

Bad news... according to this article: Everyone Is Freaking Out About The $1.5 Billion Powerball, And The Stats Agree | FiveThirtyEight

Accounting for the lump sum payment, federal taxes, smaller prizes, and risk of split jackpot, even at a $1.4 Billion jackpot the payout on a $2 bet is still far below parity, a mere $1.32. I will have to trust their math but it makes sense when you realize the lump sum is going to be at best half the advertised value.

So everyone... return your tickets for a full refund before the drawing tomorrow night.

BirdOPrey5 said:

Bad news... according to this article: Everyone Is Freaking Out About The $1.5 Billion Powerball, And The Stats Agree | FiveThirtyEight

Accounting for the lump sum payment, federal taxes, smaller prizes, and risk of split jackpot, even at a $1.4 Billion jackpot the payout on a $2 bet is still far below parity, a mere $1.32. I will have to trust their math but it makes sense when you realize the lump sum is going to be at best half the advertised value.

So everyone... return your tickets for a full refund before the drawing tomorrow night.

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I for one am looking forward to winning.

~$584,xxx,xxx. Thats what it would take to buy every winning combination.

Where does the other 1.xxxx billion go? The 'winnings' is only half of what is taken in in sales.

There are only 175,223,510 combinations. So you could essentially guarantee a win as well as multiple wins for lesser prizes.

Problem is it would take 5 years to buy that many tickets

GreenGeep said:

Where does the other 1.xxxx billion go? The 'winnings' is only half of what is taken in in sales.

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The corrupt people who run the lottery. In PA supposed to be senior citizens
After winnings...
The feds get half state gets some and even your local government gets some, then the sales tax on everything you buy.

So government is the real winner here

Ardvark said:

There are only 175,223,510 combinations. So you could essentially guarantee a win as well as multiple wins for lesser prizes.

Problem is it would take 5 years to buy that many tickets

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Negative... That was true prior to October 2015 when they changed the number of balls to make it easier to win small ($4 to $12 prizes) and much harder to win the jackpot increasing it to 1 in 292,201,338 odds. So basically $2 x 292,201,338 = $584,402,676 to buy every combination.

My guess however is because they are assuming over 500 million tickets were probably sold for this upcoming game the odds are there will be at least 2 winners so the you shouldn't count on a full jackpot.

On the other hand more than 300 million tickets were sold last game and no one won that so of course we know it's no guarantee.

The odds of the number of people winning are the same as last week as are the odds of winning it this week for any gambler. Just because the money has increased doesnt mean it's easier or harder to win

As has been mentioned earlier in the thread, if I do the lotto it's only for a week of dreams, and if I feel so obliged, longer as I may choose not to check my ticket. Online purchasing has made it harder to hide if I win but you ahve to log on to your account to see the amount won, so I can dream still.
I have apparently won the minor lotto on Friday but havent bothered to check as the odds imply that it will only be a few quid but, you never know....

neevo said:

The odds of the number of people winning are the same as last week as are the odds of winning it this week for any gambler. Just because the money has increased doesnt mean it's easier or harder to win

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No that's not correct. The odds of any 1 ticket winning are the same, but the odds of having a jackpot winner for the game depend on the number of tickets sold and more tickets are sold the higher the jackpot gets in general. They estimate from 50% to 100% more people will play that didn't play last week when it was "only" $900 million.

BirdOPrey5 said:

No that's not correct. The odds of any 1 ticket winning are the same, but the odds of having a jackpot winner for the game depend on the number of tickets sold and more tickets are sold the higher the jackpot gets in general. They estimate from 50% to 100% more people will play that didn't play last week when it was "only" $900 million.

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Nope, the only thing that increases when more people play are the pot and the odds that you split it with others, not the 1 in 292million chance your numbers are selected.

abqtj said:

Nope, the only thing that increases when more people play are the pot and the odds that you split it with others, not the 1 in 292million chance your numbers are selected.

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You basically said what I said.

The odds of having a jackpot winner never change. Ever. Unless you add/subtract the number of balls.

abqtj said:

The odds of having a jackpot winner never change. Ever. Unless you add/subtract the number of balls.

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THIS.

Do not care. Playing the lotto isn't about the odds of winning. It's about enjoying the experience and planning what you'd do if you did win.

abqtj said:

The odds of having a jackpot winner never change. Ever. Unless you add/subtract the number of balls.

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No, you are clearly not seeing this from the point of view I mean.

If only 1 person buys a ticket the chance of a winning jackpot is 1 in 292 million.

If 2 people buy a ticket (and the numbers are different) then there is twice as good a chance *anyone* hits a jackpot.

If 200 Million people buy tickets it is still a better chance a winning ticket was sold.

And so on.

The odds of someone winning remains the same.

Theoretically, the odds of a payout, from the lotto's standpoint, become more likely as more tickets are sold. There are duplicate factors, etc. that come into play. Still, this has nothing to do with a person's odds of winning.

Exactly what I've been saying, the chance a winning ticket exists is greater as the number of people who buy tickets increases.

The latest estimate as of this morning 85% of all possible combinations have been sold so there is an 85% chance (sure to increase by tonight) someone will win tonight.

Assuming all tickets sold hit the unique numbers quantity and the remainder had duplicates, I suppose so.

Just so you all know, I'm going to be the one that wins. :makeitrain:

Schnervel said:

Just so you all know, I'm going to be the one that wins. :makeitrain:

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If you win, I'd like to offer my services as your personal interwebs concierge. Rather than dip into your $5.43m lifetime gifting limit, I propose that you hire me at the rate of $350k/yr to handle your innerweb needs.